Customer and Salesman Forecasting Comparison

3. Forecasting Screen

The Forecasting screen is composed of eight sections.  Much of the Forecasting screen is common with the Planning screen.  Those common elements are described in detail in the Common Procedures (CP) manual as indicated.  There are several additional menu selections and icons which are unique to the Forecasting function.  Details of these as well as the forecasting parameters and forecast grid display are included in this manual.

3.1  Forecasting Grid

The forecasting grid contains the numeric data related to the forecasting process.  The rows of thegrid show several forecasts for future periods, up to 5 years of historical demand/sales history, and some calculated comparative measures.  By default the columns contain the information for each month beginning on the left with current month, with a 12-month total at the right side of the grid. The month shown in the column header is that of the forecast periods.  For example, headings of Jan thru Dec represent the periods for the first 12 months of forecast. The year on the row label represents the year in which the data starts. If the forecast shows “Adjusted 2019” but the current month is December, then the second datacolumn labeled Jan would represent January 2020 forecast. Data from previous years on the grid will correspond by month, but not by year.  For example, Prior Yr 1 (or the most recent 12 months of history) would be from Jan 2018 thru Dec 2018.

A fiscal view is also available which locks the data into a January-December layout regardless of the current month.

By default, the grid is divided into three sections: data for current and future periods at the top, data for historical periods in the middle, and analytical data at the bottom.                                

Future

Historical

Analytical

Additional grid rows that can be added include up to five years of Adjusted, Calculated, Customer and Salesman forecast, average weekly sales (AWS), and any external variables that have been added to the system.

3.1.1  Current and Future Period Rows

Adjusted  This is the primary forecast row.  The data in this row is used when exporting the forecast and for inventory planning purposes in Avercast Supply Planning.  This row is initially populated with the calculated forecast values the first time a calculated forecastis generated.  Depending on the options selected when generating a forecast, these values may also be changed each time a new forecast is calculated.  There are a variety of ways in which adjustments can be made to the data in this row in the grid.  For full details please refer to Section 6.

Calculated  This row contains the results of the most recent forecast calculation and is updated whenever the “Forecast All Items”function is executed (see Section 5.1). Values in this row may not be altered on screen.  

Events  This row is populated from any “events” which have been created.  These can originate in one of three ways:  using Event Management, double clicking the event row cell to create a new event, or through adjustments to forecasts made in Supply Planning (see ASP Section 3.1.2).  Values shown in this roware monthly totals of all events which fall within the month.  Details can be seen by double clicking on the value in a cell.

Customer  This row can be optionally populated with customer forecast data for reference purposes by entering values in the cellsor by providing the data or during the interface with corporate systems.  To enter or change values in a cell, click onit and enter the new value.  Be aware that the old value is not saved.  These values have no impact on the calculated forecast.

Salesman  This row is normally populated from Avercast Sales Forecasting used by salespersons to load and manage their forecasts.  This forecast can then be compared with the Calculated forecast and if desired, moved to the Adjusted row.  To enter or change values in acell, click on it and enter the new value. Be aware that the old value is not saved.  These values have no impact on the calculated forecast.

Budget  This row can be populated with corporate budget data by entering values in the cells or by providing the data during the interface with corporate systems.  To enter or change values in a cell, click on it and enter the new value.  Be aware that the old value is not saved.  These values have no impact on the calculated forecast.  

Sales Orders  Data in this row is a total by month of all sales orders which have been optionally supplied to the database from external sources, usually as part of the planning process.  This data can be used to evaluate current sales orders against the current forecast to determine if adjustments to future forecasts may be required.  These values cannot be changed manually on screen, and have no impact on the calculated forecast.

3.1.2 Historical Period Rows

Prior Yr 1  Demand/sales history for the 12 months immediately preceding the current month (referred to as months 1 thru 12, wheremonth 1 is the month prior to the current month).

Prior Yr 2  Demand/sales history for the 12 months prior to Yr 1 (referred to as months 13-24).

Prior Yr 3  Demand/sales history for the 12 months prior to Yr 2 (referred to as months 25-36).

Prior Yr 4  Demand/sales history for the 12 months prior to Yr 3 (referred to as months 37-48).

Prior Yr 5  Demand/sales history for the 12 months prior to Yr 4 (referred to as months 49-60).

Data in the historical period cells can be altered to allow for the correction of anomalies in the original data.

3.1.3 Analytical Data Rows

PY1-PY2%  Percentage change between the last 12 months of history and the previous 12 months, calculated as [(Total Prior Yr 2 – Total Prior Yr 1)/Total Prior Yr 2].

FC1-PY1%  Percentage change between the next 12 months of (adjusted) forecast and the previous 12 months of history, calculated as [(Total Adjusted – Total Prior Yr 1)/Total Adjusted]

Hist. Forecast  Forecast values which are saved each month prior to the new forecasts being calculated.

Demand  This row is a copy of the Prior Yr 1 row for convenience when viewing forecast variance.

Variance  This row is calculated as the Hist. Forecast value minus Demand.

% Percentage variance calculated as Variance divided by Demand expressed as a percentage.

3.1.4 Customizing the Grid

Beginning in Avercast Version 7.0.0 this grid can be customized by rearranging rows, adding additional rows, or removing any that are not useful to you. Customization is available in the Forecast Policies form.

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