Demand Forecasting

Avercast Demand Forecasting software is powered by an industry leading 208 forecasting algorithms. Over the last 40 years, our founders have been researching on, collaborating with, collecting ideas from, and implementing forecasting systems for many of the world’s best run companies. As a result, ADF’s forecasting engine boasts a world-class collection of formulae ranging in everything from exotic and sophisticated to simple and basic. The true beauty of Avercast Demand Forecasting is found in the ease and simplicity of its use.

Each of ADF's distinct 208 forecasting algorithms can identify and predict 208 unique demand patterns. Each time you run a forecast in Avercast Demand Forecasting, you receive 208 opportunities to identify, apply and project the proper demand pattern for every SKU. As each individual part number (everything from finished goods to raw materials) progresses through its normal lifecycle, Avercast Demand Forecasting auto adjusts algorithm selection for high introduction growth phases, seasonality, product maturity and decline phases and can automatically turn off forecast when a product reaches end-of-life.

Avercast Demand Forecasting utilizes a best-in-class “back-casting” methodology to test and measure each algorithm against any type of historical demand data (demand history, order history, shipment history, bookings history, etc.), at any level of hierarchy (SKU, SKU/customer, SKU/customer/location, product families, style/color/size, etc.) for your most recent (up to 5 years) historical demand data. Forecasts are automatically generated and are displayed for up to 60 months into the future. ADF performs hundreds of millions of calculations, auto selects and applies algorithms and prepares exception management reporting in just a few minutes.

In addition to incorporating many widely known traditional algorithms (exponential smoothing, holt winters, random walk, regression models, neural network, etc.), Avercast Demand Forecasting also includes a wide selection of proprietary and custom algorithms. ADP provides artificial intelligence in algorithm selection, with both hands-on and hands-off options, thereby allowing the statistically savvy and novice users alike comfort levels they will each enjoy

Not all inventory is created equal. ADF applies the Pareto Principle to your inventory and correctly classifies A, B, C and D items. Avercast Demand Forecasting then follows each item through its respective life cycle and automatically reclassifies each item as it jockeys back and forth for ABC position. ABF allows you to set system policies (safety stock strategies, action item alerts, etc.) according to each item’s current ABC code classification. Avercast Demand Forecasting provides for up to 5 separate ABC code classifications and allows you to create a planning matrix whereby you may classify an item as an “A” by cost, a “B” by volume, an “A” by margin, a “C” by price and a “D” by weight (additional classifications are also included, including user-defined options). You can then take your planning one step further by running an ABC Analysis on your ABC code classifications so that “A, A, A, A, A” items rise to the top and receive special treatment. SKU rationalization is also easily performed through a similar process as the items with repetitive C and D codes are flagged and analyzed to help you understand the true cost of carrying these items and help evaluate if they even make sense for your business.

Planning for promotional events is also a breeze with ADF’s event management module. Historical data outliers, spikes and one-time events are also easily identified and corrected with ADF’s outlier module. User-defined custom logic is also incorporated where, for example, you can find items that historically sold at cost or below and modify (exclude those sales for forecasting considerations) history accordingly so as not to forecast for and replicate a parking lot or fire sale again in the future. ABF can also identify and calculate lost sales and include them in forecasting calculations.

ADF includes many additional best-in-class tools such as safety stock optimization, service level optimization and customizable performance metrics. Additionally, Avercast Demand Forecasting comes complete with API connections to many popular ERP systems and business intelligence reporting tools. ABF’s SQL database is also very easy to connect with for custom integrations. Avercast Demand Forecasting software has an import/export wizard which allows users to very easily load data into the system from spreadsheets. Additionally, every data grid in ADP can be exported to Excel with a simple right click of the mouse.

Summary of Avercast Demand Planning System Features:

· Automatically analyzes up to 60 months of historical data

· Forecasts up to 60 months into the future

· Software systematically chooses “best fit” algorithm(s) based on user input and intelligent design

· 208 total forecasting methods

· Forecast at any level of hierarchy (i.e. SKU, location, customer, warehouse, planner, sales, region, groupings, total business, user-defined, etc.)

· View forecasts by units, price, cost, weight, volume, pallets, profit, or any other user definable measure

· Perform forecasts at any level of hierarchy (top down, bottom up, middle out)

· Adjust forecasts at any level of hierarchy

· Force summary forecast adjustments back down to detail records

· Graphics & Dashboards incorporated to track important key performance indicators (KPIs)

· Calculate and rank ABC codes by cost, price, weight, volume, units, or margin

· Unlimited Reporting Capabilities:

o Business intelligence tool integrations

o Built-in SQL report generator with report library

o Easily export Avercast data to Excel

Summary of Avercast Demand Planning System Benefits:

· Increase inventory turns

· Right products, in the right place, at the right time.

· Free up capital

· Forecasts up to 60 months into the future

· Quick implementation time (typical implementation is finished in less than 8 weeks)

· Easy integration with any ERP

· Increase customer fill rates / Prevented stock outs

· Increase forecast accuracy

· No-cost system customizations

· Reduce overall forecasting time

· Compare multiple forecasts (System forecasts vs. Sales forecasts vs. Customer forecasts vs. Company Budget, etc.)

· Fast Return on Investment (ROI)

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