Small businesses say coronavirus is starting to cause supply-chain squeezes and lost sales
Lost sales due to the coronavirus are unfortunate but temporary. Lost sales in historical demand data can remain forever, affecting (negatively) future forecasting endeavors. We must account for (modify) lost sales in historical sales/demand history so as not to project future lost sales in forecasting calculations.
Additionally, it’s important to quantify and store the negative effect of the coronavirus on a business so that it can be reapplied to a similar event in the future (i.e. another similar pandemic, etc.). It’s easy to quantify the net effect of an event (like coronavirus) on a business, calculate lost sales, modify your sales/demand history accordingly and provide proper forecasts going forward. Avercast does this for you (www.avercast.com).
Sir Winston Churchill once stated: “Those who fail to learn from history are condemned to repeat it.” For the supply chain community, I would modify this statement to read: “Those who fail to modify demand history are condemned to repeat it.” Let me know if you’d like some personalized advice.
Happy forecasting!-Jason
